Saturday, November 08, 2008

What's the Matter with Texas? Readers Answer (2)

More reader answers to my question about how the GOP managed to lose Harris County ...

1) Katrina has significantly altered the demographic makeup of Houston, much as immigration has reshaped Dallas. Only reason Harris County hasn't completely flipped yet is that it is much larger geographically than Dallas; in Dallas, you have to afford the Park Cities or move to an adjacent county to distance yourself from the crumbling neighborhoods. But Harris will flip in 2010. The best R's can hope for is that the next census pulls seats out of Harris County into the surrounding counties where all their voters are moving.

(2) Republicans got greedy with legislative redistricting in 2001, creating too many 55-60% districts without considering demographic trends. In Austin, instead of splitting one iron-clad R district to create two reasonably safe ones, they went for a 3-3 split. In Austin! They got all three in 2002; lost one in 2004 and the other two in 2006. Two of them are no longer winnable for a Republican.

(3) The Republican Party has done nothing to cultivate Hispanic support. They drew one district in the Valley to elect a Hispanic Republican — against a non-respected incumbent, no less. Despite this, state GOP recruited no opponent the first two election cycles, during which time Democrats ousted the incumbent with a younger, attractive woman in a primary. I think the 2006 Republican dropped out, and the 2008 Republican got no meaningful financial support. With the staunchly anti-immigrant state platform, Hispanic outreach going forward will be a waste of resources.

(4) Republican infrastructure is a farce. RNC has ignored Texas, pulling resources out and not putting any in. State GOP has had one reasonably competent election cycle since 1996. County parties are more interested in exec-committee BS than building organization. Meanwhile, the Dems took the 2004 Dean campaign machine, honed it for that general election, and have since exported it around the state. They're now successfully pushing it out into suburban counties.

(5) We also have a mostly lousy crop of political consultants. If you know anyone who knows how to run a good ground game and disciplined message, please send them our way!

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I actually don’t think the overall TX result suggests the state is becoming more Democratic. Quick math:

In 2004, the nation went for Bush by 2.5 points and TX went for Bush by 22.9 points. So the TX spread was 20.4 points above the national average.

In 2008, the nation went for Obama by something like 6.3 points and TX went for McCain by 11.8 points. So the TX spread was 18.1 points above the national average.

So, relative to the national vote, TX became 2.3 points more Democratic in 2008. But that isn’t the end of the story, since the 2004 GOP ticket was obviously headed by a Texan (and one who was extremely popular while Governor) while the 2008 ticket was not.

In all of its history, TX has only been more pro-GOP than it was in 2008 (compared to the national vote) in just two other elections: 2000 and 2004

11/08 09:46 PM