Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Obama and the Democrats

This footnote to my article on Hillary Clinton's sad decline may ultimately prove only of historical interest. On the other hand, it may matter a great deal. A Republican reader writes:

Hillary has won white Democrats in all primary elections but two. She won the white Democrat vote in Wisconsin. Therefore, white Democrats hav remained faithful [to Clinton]. When you say that she lost "every demographic category, including whites with only high-school diplomas and whites earning less than $50,000 a year"—you may not realize that she lost those groups not by white Democrats, but by white independents and Republicans, who comprised over 35% of the voters.

Despite what you've heard in the media, Obama has not made any progress in winning Democrat votes. He has conclusively lost white Democrat votes, as well as Hispanic Democrat votes everywhere they've registered on exit polls.

His longer explication of this point can be read here.

A Democratic reader phrases this same point more angrily.

I'm from Wisconsin where Obama supposedly dealt such a decisive blow against her.  But it wasn't her base that he ate into and it wasn't Democratic voters that delivered the election. 140,000 REPUBLICAN voters jumped to the Dem primary, and 308,000 Independents.  More Republicans voted in our Democratic Primary than voted for Mike Huckabee.  Almost half a million NON-Democrats decided our Democratic primary.  42% of those who voted Democrat on Feb 19 in Wisconsin are people who were most likely to vote for George W. Bush in 2004 - and they chose Obama 3 to 1.  This is already going on in Texas.  They're called "November Republicas".  In red counties in Texas the Republicans and conservatives are voting for they're preferred Dem to beat - seeing with Republican eyes, Obama does not look so invincible.  Not being democrats, they really do notice his lack of experience or accomplishment, look beyond the glitz.  Texas Dem early voting shows Democrats again outdoing the Republican turnout 3 to 1 in many red county primaries.  The real story is there now and there's plenty of material to search through.  If Obama wins Texas it will be Republicans who make the difference, just like in Wisconsin.  Consider this a tip from a disenchanted Wisconsin voter who doesn't like watching the Republicans decide who my nominee is. 

02/27 07:29 AM