Friday, October 31, 2008

The Party Balance

A self-described "independent conservative" writes:

I've long maintained that the single largest catalyst that's driven the evolution of both parties in the last 15 years is the loss of California by the GOP back in 1992. ... For the Dems, winning and securing Cali and it's motherload of 54 (now 55, which is 20% of the necessary total) electoral votes was crucial. Without them, they had almost no way to win the WH short of a miracle. ...
 
As for the GOP, the loss of those e-votes and seeming total inability to even muster a mildly competetive threat out there has forced them to attempt to keep a lock on the South and cater more and more to the needs and desires of that constitiuency. They can't afford to lose a handful of states down there than the Dems can afford to lose Cali. So, basically, the GOP is the party of the South and battles tooth and nail every 4 years in Ohio to crawl across  the finish line with 271 electoral votes.
 
Texas ... will probably end up going the way of the quartet of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and to a degree, Arizona eventually. It seems to me that 2 or 3 of those are now at best tossup states and perhaps leaning blue. And in AZ, things are close. If they flip does that mean Texas is a couple to several cycles away frofollowing ? ... Can the GOP survive if Texas becomes a tossup state ?

10/31 10:27 PM