Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Bad News for Hillary

Obama's apparent choice for National Security Adviser of former Marine commandant and NATO supreme commander James Jones is bad news for Hillary Clinton.

The other reputed choices would both have been more inclined to defer to a Secretary Clinton as the leader of US foreign policy, either because of past history working underneath her (James Steinberg) or because of their weaker force of personality (Susan Rice).

Washington has not seen real rivalry between a Secretary of State and a National Security Adviser in a long time.

Because Condoleezza Rice played such a subordinate role in the Bush 43 administration, the NSC had little influence so long as she headed it - and then State lost power when she moved there.

Bill Clinton not only had two weak secretaries of state, but also defined his foreign policy concerns primarily as financial and economic. Result: big decisions were made everywhere but State.

Under Bush 41 by contrast, the tight personal relationship between George Bush and James Baker raised the secretary as the true "vicar" of US foreign policy.

No,  you have to go back all the way to Reagan and (especially) Carter to see what happens when strong-willed secretaries and advisers conflict. No prizes for guessing the answer: The secretary almost always loses.

11/26 07:32 AM